新冠肺炎疫情至今影響全球29個國家,包括1個北非國家在內。新冠肺炎的平均致死率約2.5%,然而致死率有地區性的差異,例如:武漢地區致死率約大於3%,湖北地區致死率約2.9%,而中國其他地區平均致死率約0.7%,從中國疾病管制中心於2020年2月16日的資料來看,醫療資源不足與致死率有一定程度相關,如何使其他醫療資源不足的地區或國家,面對新冠肺炎疫情做好準備十分重要。

(財團法人國家衛生研究院 蔡慧如博士摘要整理)

The ongoing epidemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is devastating, despite extensive implementation of control measures. The outbreak was sparked in Wuhan, the capital city of Hubei province in China, and quickly spread to different regions of Hubei and across all other Chinese provinces.
As recorded by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC), by Feb 16, 2020, there had been 70 641 confirmed cases and 1772 deaths due to COVID-19, with an average mortality of about 2·5%. However, in-depth analysis of these data show clear disparities in mortality rates between Wuhan (>3%), different regions of Hubei (about 2·9% on average), and across the other provinces of China (about 0·7% on average). We postulate that this is likely to be related to the rapid escalation in the number of infections around the epicentre of the outbreak, which has resulted in an insufficiency of health-care resources, thereby negatively affecting patient outcomes in Hubei, while this has not yet been the situation for the other parts of China (figure A, B). If we assume that average levels of health care are similar throughout China, higher numbers of infections in a given population can be considered an indirect indicator of a heavier health-care burden. Plotting mortality against the incidence of COVID-19 (cumulative number of confirmed cases since the start of the outbreak, per 10 000 population) showed a significant positive correlation (figure C), suggesting that mortality is correlated with health-care burden.

Author:Yunpeng Ji, Zhongren Ma, Maikel P Peppelenbosch, et al.
原文連結:https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(20)30068-1/fulltext

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